PODCAST: Dale discusses why the #NeverTrump folks are wrong – 10-27-16

Problems with averaging polls – by Taxpayer Tom

The media like to average polls because it is easy to do and evades the obligation of explaining the data and methodologies involved and how they might differ among the polls.

It would be more intellectually honest to not conflate the polls and to merely report the data, it involves less lying.

Shown below poll data for Ohio as reported by Real Clear Politics at mid day on 10-27-16.

Here are some issues I have with what RCP has done.

The data were collected between October 10 and October 22. Mixing fresh data with stale data can be a problem as can be the arbitrary cutoff of not using data earlier than older than October 10.

The sample sizes for the polls are widely different, the largest being more than three times bigger than the smallest. This problem could be mitigated by reporting a weighted average which for the data in this table would be Trump +2.0 rather than the +1.1 average reported. But I would be reluctant to even do a weighted average without first understanding the polling methods involved.

Obviously, a fresh poll with a large sample is preferred, but it is also more expensive.

I hope the large, fresh Remington Research poll is on target, but we cannot compare the accuracy of the polls in this table without examining the methodologies involved. That is a job for the media, a job they do not do.


PODCAST: The 7 Things You Should Be Talking About Today – 10-27-16

Let’s talk more about issues and less about the horse race – by Taxpayer Tom

My early vote for a straight Republican ticket was not a statement of unconditional support for every thing that every candidate on the ticket is thought to stand for, rather it was a measure of support for a team that I believe is clearly superior to the alternatives.

Politics is all about acquiring the power to implement an agenda. Of course, its easier and more fun to talk about the horse race, but after the election we will have to live with whatever the new balance of power is and how that power will be used to implement an agenda that will affect all of us for a very long time.

I think every thing that can be said about the presidential horse race has already been said. Maybe we can find some time in the time remaining before the election to talk the competing agendas

Here is Donald Trump’s agenda. There is much to like and as conservative writer Deroy Murdock points out, there is some to not like so much, but on balance this is hugely better than what a team led by Hillary Clinton will be pushing for.


What follows is my 100-day action plan to Make America Great Again. It is a contract between myself and the American voter – and begins with restoring honesty, accountability and change to Washington

Therefore, on the first day of my term of office, my administration will immediately pursue the following six measures to clean up the corruption and special interest collusion in Washington, DC:

FIRST, propose a Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress;

SECOND, a hiring freeze on all federal employees to reduce federal workforce through attrition (exempting military, public safety, and public health);

THIRD, a requirement that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated;

FOURTH, a 5 year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service;

FIFTH, a lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government;

SIXTH, a complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections.

On the same day, I will begin taking the following 7 actions to protect American workers:

FIRST, I will announce my intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from the deal under Article 2205

SECOND, I will announce our withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership

THIRD, I will direct my Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator

FOURTH, I will direct the Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and direct them to use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately

FIFTH, I will lift the restrictions on the production of $50 trillion dollars’ worth of job producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal.

SIXTH, lift the Obama-Clinton roadblocks and allow vital energy infrastructure projects, like the Keystone Pipeline, to move forward

SEVENTH, cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America’s water and environmental infrastructure

Next, I will work with Congress to introduce the following broader legislative measures and fight for their passage within the first 100 days of my Administration:

  1. Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act. An economic plan designed to grow the economy 4% per year and create at least 25 million new jobs through massive tax reduction and simplification, in combination with trade reform, regulatory relief, and lifting the restrictions on American energy. The largest tax reductions are for the middle class. A middle-class family with 2 children will get a 35% tax cut. The current number of brackets will be reduced from 7 to 3, and tax forms will likewise be greatly simplified. The business rate will be lowered from 35 to 15 percent, and the trillions of dollars of American corporate money overseas can now be brought back at a 10 percent rate.
  1. End The Offshoring Act Establishes tariffs to discourage companies from laying off their workers in order to relocate in other countries and ship their products back to the U.S. tax-free.
  1. American Energy & Infrastructure Act. Leverages public-private partnerships, and private investments through tax incentives, to spur $1 trillion in infrastructure investment over 10 years. It is revenue neutral.
  1. School Choice And Education Opportunity Act. Redirects education dollars to gives parents the right to send their kid to the public, private, charter, magnet, religious or home school of their choice. Ends common core, brings education supervision to local communities. It expands vocational and technical education, and make 2 and 4-year college more affordable.
  1. Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act. Fully repeals Obamacare and replaces it with Health Savings Accounts, the ability to purchase health insurance across state lines, and lets states manage Medicaid funds. Reforms will also include cutting the red tape at the FDA: there are over 4,000 drugs awaiting approval, and we especially want to speed the approval of life-saving medications.
  1. Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act. Allows Americans to deduct childcare and elder care from their taxes, incentivizes employers to provide on-side childcare services, and creates tax-free Dependent Care Savings Accounts for both young and elderly dependents, with matching contributions for low-income families.
  1. End Illegal Immigration Act Fully-funds the construction of a wall on our southern border with the full understanding that the country Mexico will be reimbursing the United States for the full cost of such wall; establishes a 2-year mandatory minimum federal prison sentence for illegally re-entering the U.S. after a previous deportation, and a 5-year mandatory minimum for illegally re-entering for those with felony convictions, multiple misdemeanor convictions or two or more prior deportations; also reforms visa rules to enhance penalties for overstaying and to ensure open jobs are offered to American workers first.
  1. Restoring Community Safety Act. Reduces surging crime, drugs and violence by creating a Task Force On Violent Crime and increasing funding for programs that train and assist local police; increases resources for federal law enforcement agencies and federal prosecutors to dismantle criminal gangs and put violent offenders behind bars.
  1. Restoring National Security Act. Rebuilds our military by eliminating the defense sequester and expanding military investment; provides Veterans with the ability to receive public VA treatment or attend the private doctor of their choice; protects our vital infrastructure from cyber-attack; establishes new screening procedures for immigration to ensure those who are admitted to our country support our people and our values
  1. Clean up Corruption in Washington Act. Enacts new ethics reforms to Drain the Swamp and reduce the corrupting influence of special interests on our politics.

On November 8th, Americans will be voting for this 100-day plan to restore prosperity to our economy, security to our communities, and honesty to our government. This is my pledge to you. And if we follow these steps, we will once more have a government of, by and for the people.

Top Ten Tweets at 10 for October 27th, 2016


On a #NeverTrump-er coming home…


More on a #NeverTrump-er coming home…


More on a #NeverTrump-er coming home…


On keeping felonious losers from voting…


On the increase in Trump masks being sold…


On Megyn Kelly still being the enemy…


On Trump not having any offices in Arizona…

On Young Zach un-endorsing(?) Trump…


On Young Zach un-endorsing(?) Trump…


On Young Zach un-endorsing(?) Trump…

The Dale Jackson ShowPrep for October 27th, 2016…

  • 7:00 AM – 7 Things You Should Be Talking About Today
  • 7:20 AM – SEC Network’s Cole Cubelic
  • 8:00 AM – Hate at 8!!
  • 8:20 AM – AL.com’s John Archibald
  • 9:00 AM – 7 Things You Should Be Talking About Today
  • 9:20 AM – WVNN’s James Lomax
  • 9:55 AM – “What in the World?” with WAAY-31’s Meredith Wood
  • 10:00 AM – Top Ten Tweets at Ten

A #NeverTrump-er comes home…

Does Trump know he is losing?

Despite Trump’s claim that he doesn’t believe the polls, his San Antonio research team spends $100,000 a week on surveys (apart from polls commissioned out of Trump Tower) and has sophisticated models that run daily simulations of the election. The results mirror those of the more reliable public forecasters — in other words, Trump’s staff knows he’s losing. Badly. ‘Nate Silver’s results have been similar to ours,’ says [digital guru Brad] Parscale, referring to the polling analyst and his predictions at FiveThirtyEight, ‘except they lag by a week or two because he’s relying on public polls.’

What if Hillary wins?

Trump Co. keeps taking shots at Ryan

Some in the deeply factionalized Republican Party, including Mr. Trump and some of his senior aides, are already fanning the flames for a revolt against the House speaker, Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, once Congress reconvenes after the election. Mr. Trump, who has lashed out at the speaker for being critical of him, has privately said that Mr. Ryan should pay a price for his disloyalty, according to two people close to Mr. Trump who insisted on anonymity to describe internal campaign discussions.

and Jeb…

and the Khan family…

and Megyn Kelly…

What a fraud…


Wednesday, October 26
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX News Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 7, Stein 3 Clinton +3
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton FOX News Clinton 49, Trump 44 Clinton +5
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Reuters/Ipsos Clinton 42, Trump 38, Johnson 7, Stein 2 Clinton +4
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Reuters/Ipsos Clinton 43, Trump 37 Clinton +6
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein USA Today/Suffolk Clinton 47, Trump 38, Johnson 4, Stein 2 Clinton +9
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton USA Today/Suffolk Clinton 49, Trump 39 Clinton +10
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Associated Press-GfK Clinton 51, Trump 37, Johnson 6, Stein 2 Clinton +14
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton 44, Trump 45 Trump +1
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 42, Trump 41, Johnson 8, Stein 3 Clinton +1
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 41 Clinton +2
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein ABC News Tracking Clinton 49, Trump 40, Johnson 5, Stein 2 Clinton +9
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton ABC News Tracking Clinton 51, Trump 43 Clinton +8
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 44, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Clinton +1
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Associated Press-GfK Clinton 54, Trump 41 Clinton +13
Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Bloomberg Clinton 43, Trump 45, Johnson 4, Stein 2 Trump +2
Nevada: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 43, Trump 43, Johnson 10 Tie
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 45, Trump 36, Johnson 10, Stein 4 Clinton +9
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Monmouth Clinton 46, Trump 42, Johnson 7, Stein 1 Clinton +4
Texas: Trump vs. Clinton Austin American-Statesman* Trump 45, Clinton 38 Trump +7
Montana: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Montana State U. Trump 43, Clinton 27, Johnson 7, Stein 2 Trump +16
Florida Senate – Rubio vs. Murphy Bloomberg Rubio 51, Murphy 41 Rubio +10
Florida Senate – Rubio vs. Murphy Bay News 9/SurveyUSA Rubio 45, Murphy 41 Rubio +4
New Hampshire Senate – Ayotte vs. Hassan Monmouth* Ayotte 46, Hassan 46 Tie
Nevada Senate – Heck vs. Cortez Masto NBC/WSJ/Marist Heck 49, Cortez Masto 42 Heck +7
New Hampshire Senate – Ayotte vs. Hassan NBC/WSJ/Marist Ayotte 48, Hassan 47 Ayotte +1
New Hampshire Governor – Sununu vs. Van Ostern Monmouth* Ostern 48, Sununu 43 Ostern +5
New Hampshire Governor – Sununu vs. Van Ostern NBC/WSJ/Marist Ostern 47, Sununu 46 Ostern +1
Montana At-Large District – Zinke vs. Juneau Montana State U. Zinke 50, Juneau 31 Zinke +19
President Obama Job Approval FOX News Approve 53, Disapprove 46 Approve +7
President Obama Job Approval USA Today/Suffolk Approve 54, Disapprove 41 Approve +13
President Obama Job Approval Associated Press-GfK Approve 53, Disapprove 47 Approve +6
President Obama Job Approval Gallup Approve 52, Disapprove 44 Approve +8
President Obama Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 55, Disapprove 45 Approve +10
President Obama Job Approval Reuters/Ipsos Approve 48, Disapprove 47 Approve +1
2016 Generic Congressional Vote FOX News Democrats 47, Republicans 45 Democrats +2
2016 Generic Congressional Vote Reuters/Ipsos Democrats 44, Republicans 39 Democrats +5
2016 Generic Congressional Vote ABC News Democrats 47, Republicans 46 Democrats +1
2016 Generic Congressional Vote Associated Press-GfK Democrats 46, Republicans 41 Democrats +5
Congressional Job Approval Associated Press-GfK Approve 14, Disapprove 86 Disapprove +72
Direction of Country Associated Press-GfK Right Direction 32, Wrong Track 67 Wrong Track +35
Direction of Country USA Today/Suffolk Right Direction 35, Wrong Track 54 Wrong Track +19
Direction of Country Reuters/Ipsos Right Direction 21, Wrong Track 66 Wrong Track +45

Good news?


Obama lies…


Rubio +8, Kasich +12, Cruz tied…

But Dale, the media would have spit them out too…

Maybe, but at least they would have made it more complicated than providing hours of clips and personal accounts about how terrible they are.

Also, maybe, they could carry out a campaign against Hillary Clinton in a way that would actually damage her. As of today, I can’t think of a single attack Trump has engaged in that has actually damaged Hillary Clinton.

Can you? No.

Reminder: Trump is down big in the real world and he started down big. These other guys started from a better position.

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