3/12: 3-way dance in Alabama, embarrassing poll numbers and a Presidential endorsement…

Guests today:

  • 6:00 AM – Rep. Mike Ball
  • 7:00 AM – Madison County Commissioner and my choice for County Commission Chairman Dale Strong
  • 7:45 AM – Endorsement in Madison County Commission District 5 primary
  • 8:00 AM – Congressman Mo Brooks
  • 8:45 AM – Endorsement in the GOP Presidential primary

Interesting new numbers in the AL Presidential primary

Tuesday looks like it’s going to be a close election night in both
Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead
with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum, and 7% for Ron Paul. And
Alabama is even closer with Romney at 31% to 30% for Gingrich, 29% for Santorum,
and 8% for Paul.

I like….

Social conservatives are killing themselves while helping the most electable general election nominee…

The reason Romney has a chance to win despite being less popular in both states is the
split in the conservative vote. In Mississippi 44% of voters describe themselves as ‘very
conservative’ and Romney’s getting only 26% with them. But he’s still in the mix because
Gingrich leads Santorum only 35-32 with them. In Alabama where 45% of voters identify
as ‘very conservative,’ Romney’s at just 24%. But again he remains competitive overall
because his opponents are so tightly packed with those voters, with Santorum at 37% and
Gingrich at 31%.

Other #s…

Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 13%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 36%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 45%

Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 25%
No …………………………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 68%
Are not …………………………………………………… 32%
If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If an independent, press
3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 3%
Republican……………………………………………… 76%
Independent……………………………………………. 21%

Which best describes when you decided who
to vote for: in the last few days, the last week,
the last month, or earlier than that?
In the last few days ………………………………….. 13%
In the last week……………………………………….. 9%
In the last month ……………………………………… 31%
Earlier than that ………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Are you an Alabama or Auburn fan?
Alabama…………………………………………………. 58%
Auburn …………………………………………………… 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Do you think Alabama’s new immigration law
has been a good thing or a bad thing for the
state?
Good thing ……………………………………………… 67%
Bad thing………………………………………………… 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rush Limbaugh?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Do you think Barack Obama is a Christian or a
Muslim, or are you not sure?
Christian…………………………………………………. 14%
Muslim …………………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%

Do you believe in evolution, or not?
Believe in evolution………………………………….. 26%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Obama is a secret Muslim? Really? 45%? Gah. Stop.


Mike Ball get’s props in the New York Times

But the Deep South base is not as predictable as it once was. National polling companies have found a volatile contest in Alabama and Mississippi, a near toss-up among the three leading candidates. And indeed the primaries represent a rather neat slicing of the Southern electorate at the current moment.

“The base is split all over the place on this,” said Mike Ball, a Republican state legislator in Alabama.

Is this fertile ground for Mr. Santorum, whose commanding victory in Tennessee last week was largely attributable to evangelical Christian voters? Or are Alabama and Mississippi voters more like those in South Carolina, who relished Mr. Gingrich’s fire-breathing style?

Or will voters here, particularly evangelicals, do what may have been unthinkable just years ago and support a Mormon from a Northeastern state who sells his corporatist approach to fixing the economy and claims he is the most electable? Mr. Romney’s promising poll numbers should not come as a shock in the South of today, Mr. Ball said.

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One Response

  1. Dale Strong “does not know” if Madison County can purchase property at an auction??!!

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